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09/09/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colby Lewis tries to put the breaks on a personal seven- game losing streak this evening when the Texas Rangers conclude a four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
Lewis hasn't won since July 16 and is 0-7 in his nine starts since with a 5.07 earned run average. His latest setback came on Saturday in Minnesota where he was pounded to the tune of nine runs and eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings. The loss dropped him to 9-12 on the year, while raising his ERA to 3.96.
The 31-year-old righty lost to the Blue Jays back on May 16 and is 1-3 lifetime against them with a 10.80 ERA in five games, four of which have been starts.
Texas got itself back into the win column on Wednesday, as Ian Kinsler and Jeff Francoeur ignited the offense, helping the American League West-leading Rangers snap a series of streaks with an 8-1 win.
Kinsler homered to begin the game and Francoeur went 3-for-4, including an RBI single in the first inning.
Derek Holland (3-3) scattered three hits and equaled a season high with eight strikeouts over five scoreless frames. It was a far cry from his only previous start against Toronto, on August 31, 2009, in which he allowed a career-worst 10 runs.
"I felt really good. I had command of all my pitches," Holland said. "The defense was making plays behind me and the offense was hitting the ball pretty well."
Not only did the Rangers avoid matching a season high with a sixth straight loss, the club halted a seven-game losing streak to the Blue Jays, a seven- game skid in Toronto and recorded its first win on an artificial surface this season. Texas had gone 0-5 at Rogers Centre and was winless in three games at Tropicana Field.
The Rangers remained seven games ahead of second-place Oakland in the division standings.
Marc Rzepczynski (1-4), throwing on three days' rest for the first time in his young career, gave up three runs on seven hits and walked three in five innings for the Blue Jays.
"For the most part, my stuff was good," Rzepczynski said. "I just overthrew a couple pitches."
Tonight Toronto will turn to the returning Shawn Hill, who is coming back from his second Tommy John surgery and is making his first big league start since April 2009.
Signed by the Blue Jays in January, Hill was 6-2 with a 1.61 ERA in 11 minor league starts this season.
<< Rockies go for sweep of Reds
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The red-hot Colorado Rockies look to sweep a four-game set
from the Cincinnati Reds when the two teams collide tonight in the series
finale from Coors Field.
Colorado has won six straight overall and recorded a 9-2 victory
<< NL West supremacy on line in San Diego
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - First place in the National League West will be on the line
as the top two teams in the division, San Francisco and San Diego, kick off an
important four-game series tonight at Petco Park.
The Padres currently lead the div
<< Brady involved in car accident
Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was
involved in a car accident Thursday morning in Boston.
The Patriots confirmed the news on their Twitter feed and added that Brady was
not hospitalized and was e
<< Serie A needs Milan to succeed
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In case you haven't noticed, Italian
soccer is not exactly flourishing.
Yes, the national team won the World Cup four years ago, and Serie A side
Inter Milan became the first Italian team to win
Dodgers take losing streak into Houston >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers try to avoid a season-high sixth
consecutive loss this evening when they open a four-game series against the
Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.
The Dodgers' playoff chances took a big hit th
NBA opens office in Moscow >>
Moscow, Russia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Basketball Association has
opened a new office in Moscow, as announced by deputy commissioner and COO
Adam Silver on Thursday.
Moscow joins the ever-expanding international umbrella ho
NCAA steps up and cracks down >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The old adage "better late than never" does
not always ring true. However, after years of turning a blind eye to the seedy
practices at play in college sports, the NCAA has recently gone on a crusade
for whic
Dolphins cut C Grove; sign G Procter >>
Davie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Dolphins released veteran center Jake
Grove three days before the start of the 2010 regular season.
Grove, 30, missed time in the preseason due to a shoulder injury and lost his
starting spot to Joe
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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